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    Notes on the Economy – Q4 2025 Summary
    December 4, 2025
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    November 25, 2025
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Here are three rays of sunshine in an otherwise dreary global economy.

Three Bright Spots in a Drab World Picture

December 5, 2023

Here are three rays of sunshine in an otherwise dreary global economy.

The U.S. debt crisis is growing—here’s what you can do about it.

What You Can Do to Solve the Debt Crisis 

November 14, 2023

The U.S. debt crisis is growing—here’s what you can do about it.

Interest rates—to raise or not to raise—one more time? That is the question facing the Fed.

What’s a Central Banker To Do? 

October 31, 2023

Interest rates—to raise or not to raise—one more time? That is the question facing the Fed.

China’s economic doldrums likely won’t make the U.S. or the world better off in the long run.

Don’t Root for China’s Continued Malaise

October 5, 2023

China’s economic doldrums likely won’t make the U.S. or the world better off in the long run.

Three ways in which the U.S. economy could botch the soft landing and fall into recession.

Three Ways the Fed’s Soft Landing Could Turn Hard

October 3, 2023

Three ways in which the U.S. economy could botch the soft landing and fall into recession.

Foot about to slip on banana

Notes on the Economy – Q3 2023 Summary

August 29, 2023

Economic growth is robust, the unemployment rate is at a 54-year low, the stock market is up over 15% year-to-date! What could possibly go wrong?

mashup of American flag, market performance charts, and U.S. capitol building

Debt-Ceiling Deal’s Economic Drag Will Be Small

June 22, 2023

New federal-debt law will do little to roll back government spending and have only a small impact on U.S. GDP growth.

People skating on thin ice

Notes on the Economy – Q2 2023 Summary

June 1, 2023

It would not take much to push the economy into a downturn serious enough to warrant a recession label.

Capital building with debt ceiling

A Dangerous Game of Debt-ceiling Chicken

May 2, 2023

Politicians bickering over the debt ceiling would never intentionally push America off the fiscal cliff, risking economic calamity, or would they?

Fed Risks Recession When Cleaning Up Sticky Inflation

March 23, 2023

Inflation is a sticky mess that the Federal Reserve keeps scrubbing away at with interest-rate hikes, even if it means causing a recession.

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