How the Grinch Stole COVID Expectations
• 2 min read
- Brief: Global Economy
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Optimism abounds, despite surging COVID-19 cases nationwide.
The U.S. economy is recovering, stock markets are at all-time highs and interest rates are at record lows. Two COVID-19 vaccines are on the way, and several others could be ready in a few months.
All this good news seems to have made some folks giddy and a bit lax when it comes to pandemic precautions. Infection rates, hospitalizations and fatalities are steadily climbing.
Not to go all Grinch, but the pandemic is not over and a return to normalcy, at best, lies many months ahead. And expectations of a smooth recovery might be too good to be true. Getting the vaccine to 300 million Americans is a monumental task. Consider this:
- Transportation and storage of the Pfizer vaccine must be frozen to minus 70-80 degrees Celsius—colder than Antarctica. No one has experience with such a mass-distribution conundrum. The Moderna vaccine, expected to be available later this month, is a bit easier to handle, requiring minus 20 Celsius —more like a regular freezer.
- After thawing, Pfizer vaccine batches of 1,000 or 5,000 doses must be administered within five days. Trying to organize and administer that many doses within such a tight time frame could lead to a lot of wasted vaccines. Moderna’s vaccine can last up to 30 days after thawing.
- Both vaccines require a booster shot that is given three or four weeks after the initial shot. Getting recipients to return for the booster in a timely fashion might prove a logistical mess.
- Currently, four out of 10 Americans say they will refuse the vaccine. Scientists estimate 60-70% participation is necessary to achieve the herd immunity needed to stop COVID-19’s rapid spread.
No one knows with certainty how long the vaccines will be effective. A year or just several months?
Optimism is good, but let’s not forget this deadly virus is merciless, and everyone must do their part to defeat it. We all have a duty to continue pandemic precautions until we all get vaccinated—a cause we all should champion.
This information is for general information use only. It is not tailored to any specific situation, is not intended to be investment, tax, financial, legal, or other advice and should not be relied on as such. AMG’s opinions are subject to change without notice, and this report may not be updated to reflect changes in opinion. Forecasts, estimates, and certain other information contained herein are based on proprietary research and should not be considered investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any particular security, strategy, or investment product.
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