Scholarly economic research is paramount to successful long-term investing. In-depth economic analysis gives investment managers indications of how different asset classes are likely to perform in the coming years.
For AMG National Trust Bank, investment recommendations begin with an assessment of likely economic trends, events and scenarios five years out. Dr. Michael Bergmann, AMG’s co-founder and a Stanford Ph.D. in business economics, uses the analysis to forecast expected risk and return characteristics — under five to seven different economic scenarios — for 21 asset classes over the forward-looking five-year period.
Understanding the likely return potential and risk characteristics of various asset classes enhances AMG’s ability to select an asset allocation that has a higher potential to create outsized returns, as compared to investment portfolios built using a historical analysis of asset-class performance.